It's not only generals who are constantly fighting the last war, it is also most policy makers and researchers. After the Iranian Oil Crisis (1979/80), nearly every oil crisis study was aimed at the problem of hoarding, because in 1979/80, there were periods where inventories grew by 3 million barrels a day, a major reason for the price increases that occurred. My 1986 M.I.T. paper, "Fighting the Last War: Preparations for the Next Oil Crisis," argued that the type of hoarding that occurred during the 1979 Iranian Oil Crisis was due to specific conditions that were unlikely to recur.

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